Protestors in Moldova

While we can debate the role of each service, the basic facts are true – the Social Web was and is being used to report, organize and influence protests against the Communists in Moldova.

Vitalie Eşanu provided some interesting lessons from the front lines, stating that they used McDonald’s free wifi as cellphones were being blocked. He also commented on the organization of the protests stating:

Initial organization, was spread over twitter and Facebook, and expected only few persons. Later we agree to create #pman to spread about this event over the world, and use Facebook for photos, and Youtube for videos

Twitter is still being used actively to report on events in Moldova and you can follow the twitter stream using the hashtag #pman. Watching this stream you can read the real-time reports of protesters as well as insights and advice being provided on how to respond.

Now, while many will argue the exact utility and role of services like Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, and Flickr in these protests, I am concerned with the more basic issue of access. In many cases the protesters were unable to communicate or organize via the social web or phones because services were turned off or blocked. This is not a new phenomenon – governments have shut down and restricted printing presses, radios, television, cellular and internet services in the past. Given today’s technology we should start thinking about how we can provide rapidly deployable internet and cellular service when the time comes for the US to support movements such as these. I’m not arguing that Moldova is a place we should intervene, but I am saying we should analyze this event and think to the near future.

John Kelly and Bruce Etling of Harvard University researched the Iranian blogosphere and their report, Mapping Iran’s Online Public [.pdf], reveals some interesting findings regarding the online presence of Iranian Bloggers. Using some complex science, these gentlemen produced an insightful look into the online world of Iranian discourse. Unlike typical stereotypes, Iranian bloggers are not just a wild bunch of dissatisfied youth working against the regime. According to Kelly and Etling, the Iranian social media landscape is much more complex – in their own words:

We used computational social network mapping in combination with human and automated content analysis to analyze the Iranian blogosphere. In contrast to the conventional wisdom that Iranian bloggers are mainly young democrats critical of the regime, we found a wide range of opinions representing religious conservative points of view as well as secular and reform-minded ones, and topics ranging from politics and human rights to poetry, religion, and pop culture. Our research indicates that the Persian blogosphere is indeed a large discussion space of approximately 60,000 routinely updated blogs featuring a rich and varied mix of bloggers. Social network analysis reveals the Iranian blogosphere to be dominated by four major network formations, or poles, with identifiable sub-clusters of bloggers within those poles. We label the poles as 1) Secular/Reformist, 2) Conservative/Religious, 3) Persian Poetry and Literature, and 4) Mixed Networks.

The Iranian Blogosphere (Click for Larger Image)

This taxonomy of Iran’s social media landscape is useful to those of us interested in engaging Iran online. If we want to understand, influence and support change in Iran, this online community offers tremendous access to the thought leaders and organizers of change. We should support the “Secular / Reformist” demographic with the tools, information, and infrastructure needed to support their online activities both in and out of Iran. While our President seeks an effective dialogue with Iran, we must not ignore Iran’s treatment of these bloggers. The US State Department and other agencies should hold Iran accountable for their behavior. We don’t need to do this in an aggressive manner – accountability can come from honest, transparent documentation of Iran’s treatment of its citizens. With our nation’s resources and the help of Iranians and others online, we could easily document the abuses of Mahmoud’s regime and expose their actions to the world.

For a vivid and cost-effective example of accountability, consider the work of a handful of Vancouver Film students. While researching for her script Conflict of Interest, Kate Tremills wrote an Iranian Blogs script which she pitched to the Vancouver Design School – these students then produced the video “Iran: A Nation of Bloggers” included below. Inspired by the book “We are Iran: The Persian Blogs”, Kate has produced a video which offers great promise to those hoping to change Iran.

Iran understands the threat from social media. In addition to imprisonment, the regime is now considering the death penalty for “offensive bloggers” as seen in the Al Jazeera news segment below. The US should recognize the power of the Iranian blogosphere and step up our efforts to understand, support and engage this community.

If we do decide to hold Iran accountable on the social web, we should be aware that Iran will likely respond with online attacks against these efforts. Since February of 2009, the U.S.-based Persian-language social media site, Balatarin.com, was attacked by hackers linked to Iran. These hackers went after personal information and credit card numbers in an attempt to intimidate and identify Iranians opposed to the regime. This breach of security can be devastating, particularly if we are looking to organize and support Iranian’s who want to hold the regime accountable.

In a final warning, Omid Habibinia, an Iranian media researcher and journalist living in exile in Switzerland, provides some dire warnings about Iranian intelligence using the social web to track and identify dissent. I too have noticed this activity on Facebook, with odd “friend requests” coming from friendly Iranians. As always, be careful who you friend, follow and poke – the social web can be a dangerous place if you’re not careful.

Ahmadinejad's Personal Memos

Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has his own blog at Personal Memo’s where global citizens come to praise him. The most interesting section is the comments column; I’ve included a few of these “honest” gems for your amusement:

	George Cheng Shu	shu…@gmail.com
I think many people on the world do not really know Iran, especially for Irans long history and great culture. I will say, I hope Iran will use its nuclear for peace. Im happy to visit Mr. presidents blog. Its a good way to know Iran whitout the world powers sight.
	paul sharfin	pfc…@yahoo.com
Mr. President I think the problem is not enough people read between the lines as to what you are saying. My hope is that the world and Iran come to an understanding that centers on PEACE
	Colby Brown	tri…@att.net
God bless Iran, Bush and Isreal are unfair to Iran. I am sorry for the way you were treated at our university. All americans are not the same as Bush. Peace god bless Iran and the rest of the world!

Sadly for Mahmoud, his blog isn’t doing so well these days. While his site was attacked by Israeli activists in the past, the current dive into irrelevance is largely his fault. The site is uninspiring and the comments – well they speak for themselves. After doing a quick search on Alexa, I found that the great leader of Iran has struggled to compete with the daily reach of the Back Street Boys, Ann Coulter and even Barney.

Mahmoud loses to Ann Coulter, Back Street Boys and Barney

On a positive note, Mahmoud has his own Facebook Page with 29,971 Supporters; funny enough, Mahmoud’s ‘favorite pages’ are Presidente Hugo Chavez and the “Guy Who Threw his Shoes at Bush”. Seriously Mahmoud, you think a world leader like you might have better favorites. Fortunately Mahmoud also has some fun polls you can participate it. Two of my faves are below:

jeffbentley: reading: The Challenges of Perception Management in National Strategy and Military Operations [.pdf] http://tinyurl.com/d2gcvc

USAF Matteo Martemucci

The document “Regaining the High Ground: The Challenges of Perception Management in National Strategy and Military Operations” was written by Matteo G. Martemucci (Maj, USAF) while attending the Joint Forces Staff College in 2007. (Matteo is now Director of Operations at the 547th Intelligence Squadron)

The abstract of Maj Martemucci’s paper is below:

The informational element of power may be the most elusive for the U.S. Government to wield, but its importance is proportional to its difficulty. With the rise in global terrorist networks and a precipitous decline in world opinion of America’s foreign policy, Perception Management is more critical now than at any time in America’s history. This paper attempts to answer the question of why, in this time of conflict, it is so difficult for the U.S. Government to effectively leverage the informational element of power. It explores three friction-inducing elements that afflict the U.S. Government, including the military. The U.S. Government’s politics & personalities, bureaucracy, and aversion to the use of mass media, even in time of war, have precluded an integrated Perception Management campaign.
A historical review of Perception Management strategies since World War I reveals that this difficulty is based largely on individual personalities, an ever-growing bureaucracy, and an historical American concern about the perceived manipulation of the media by its government. To solve this problem, the President must clearly define lines of authority regarding the Government’s Perception Management strategy. He must also give that authority to a strong leader capable of coordinating the disparate efforts of numerous Government agencies. Finally, the U.S. Government must take a more proactive approach to media engagement as part of an integrated strategic Perception Management campaign.

Thinking about these three historical friction points made me wonder how social media will fare and how it will influence perception management.

Individual Personalities

Without revisiting the “personalities” in place during the writing of this paper in 2007, let’s instead look to the present and future. First, President Obama has handled himself skillfully in the strategic communication and social media front. Beyond the fact that his campaign leveraged the social web for an amazing victory, Obama’s interview with al-Arabiya Network in Dubai showed a policy of dialogue rather than dictation – certainly a format more appropriate for social media. Regardless of political inclination, we all have to agree that our nation’s highest leader has certainly set the tone for social media.

A group of Iraqi men watch Obama on TV

Under Secretary Clinton’s leadership the US State Department has engaged in innovative and effective social media campaigns reflecting a clear commitment to the power of social media. We can rightly expect that our nation’s Public Diplomacy efforts will continue to embrace social media.

Within the Department of Defense, key military leaders including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, General David Petraeus, and his adviser David Kilcullen have focused American military strategy towards counterinsurgency and favor the use of “soft power”. Across the military we see key military leaders stepping up to the plate and embracing the social web. In an earlier post we highlighted the “Leadership By Example” mentality of US Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen who has boldly spread the use of social media across his command. Similarly, Admiral Stavridis, commander of SOUTHCOM and his counter-part at AFRICOM, General Ward, have been using the internet to engage audiences. In fact, all across the military we are starting to see military commands embrace social media.

While “personalities” may have been a hindrance in past perception management policy and strategies, I expect the new administration as well as leaders within the Department of State and Department of Defense will usher in a new era of coordinated campaigns as well as a firm embrace of social media.

Bureaucracy

Yes, we got boatloads of bureaucracy and it’s not changing fast enough or soon enough. While I expect social media to revolutionize how we engage with foreign audiences, I expect bureaucratic challenges to be our biggest barrier. We will have to change our acquisition system, policies, operations, security procedures, manpower, training and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Politicians, agency heads and leaders across the government will have to make decisions, and we expect that will require years of staff work.

The Register has a great article about Andrew McLaughlin (Barack Obama Transition Team) and his attempt at “bringing Web 2.0 to Washington.” While Andrew’s experience is typical, the government is plodding along. The GSA recently signed deals with key social web companies such as Youtube, Flickr, Vimeo and Blip.tv. allowing them to use these services. But, look at the small print – it took nine months to put these agreements in place. Imagine how long an entire social media / social web strategy will take.

Deconstructing government bureaucracy in the near to mid term is unlikely, but there are movements working hard to change that reality. Government 2.0 Club is a great example and CNET was there to cover the ‘national organization created to allow government, academia, and industry to collaborate on Web 2.0 solutions for government.’ We attended along with hundreds of other Gov 2.0 idealists and had a chance to talk to foks such as Jack Holt who is leading social media change at the Defense Media Activity as well as Bill May of the US State Department who described State’s use of twitter, blogs, social networks, online video and other social media tactics.I also had a chance to talk with Laurel Ruma of O’Reilly Media and have great expectations for their Government 2.0 Summit in September of 2009.

The bottom line here is that bureaucracy is unlikely to change quickly, but it will change.

Social Media to the Frontlines

Perceived Manipulation of the Media by its Government

What a change two years can bring. When Major Martemucci wrote his original report I expect his frame of mind centered on the notion of mainstream media – namely how the US Government engaged and pushed its message to the leviathons of mass media. But in the two years since his paper was published, the media landscape has been upset by the emergence of social media. While broadcast news and papers aren’t dead, their influence has waned with the emergence of bloggers, citizen journalism, microblogging, and livestreaming. Now and into the future, these new sources of social media will increasingly frame perceptions of US policy and operations abroad.

Leaders and staff within the White House, US State Department and Department of Defense recognize this emerging trend and have increased their efforts to engage across the social web. While bureaucracy may slow the pace of change, new leaders and a new media landscape have set the stage for social media to play a leading role in perception management.

Human Dynamics on the Frontline

The Defense Science Board recently released Understanding Human Dynamics, a report spawned by the need to understand the human dimension of war given the nature of the “war on terrorism” and American intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. While the entire report is a fascinating look at where the military is going in its approach to understanding the human dimension, we are most interested in a key paragraph of the report entitled “Information Engagement Requirements Will Significantly Expand” – the full text is below:

In an era where populations are linked by instant communications, information will also shape the operational environment. Information engagement can communicate critical knowledge, build trust, promote support for U.S. operations, and influence the perceptions and behaviors of many audiences. It places a high premium on understanding the local political, social, and economic situation within an area of operation. It also requires access to detailed information and trends regarding relevant audiences and their respective cultures, interests and objectives. A sophisticated understanding of traditional media (print, radio, and video broadcasting), social media (e.g. wiki, blogs), collaborative media, as well as influence networks will be necessary for audience understanding, tracking and influence. Ongoing data collection will be needed to identify emerging issues and opportunities that will serve as essential underpinnings of U.S. government strategic communication and public diplomacy efforts.

Looking at this paragraph, we see that key components of the Social Web (“social media”,”collaborative media” and online “influence networks”) will be essential to military strategy and operations now and into the future. Given that the this study recognizes the importance of the Social Web, what does that mean exactly?

First, we can rightly assume that the writers of this report threw in “social media” largely as a buzzword – the reference to “wikis and blogs” demonstrates a rudimentary understanding of social media and was either pulled from a large, dusty military primer on “web 2.0″ or a quick googling of the term. Wikis are unlikely to become a key “social media” input to the military human dynamic equation as I doubt we’ll find many critical wikis emerge in the hot spots of disaster relief, peacekeeping operations or all-out-war. As for blogs, we agree on their importance; we’ve seen them emerge on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan and we can rightly predict a massive uptake not only in blogging, but micro-blogging from future areas of conflict as well.

But in addition to the DSB’s “wikis and blogs”, the military should also be prepared for other forms of content and communication to play a key role in future missions and conflicts. Some of these are discussed below, but this is by no means a comprehensive list.

Mobile is King!

Hi-tech cellphones emerge on the battlefield

Mobile devices will surely be at the forefront of any future environment and the military needs to focus on mobile technology, content and usage immediately. EPROM (Entrepreneurial Programming and Research on Mobiles) out of MIT is a great resource both for data and ideas. With billions of mobile phones used worldwide and with over 60% of these consumers living in developing countries, it’s a safe bet to assume that the mobile phone is our “go to” device for social media engagement and understanding in most conflict countries. For a deeper look into human behavior and mobile devices you should check out the work at “Reality Mining” and find time to chat with Sandy Pentland of MIT. He’s speaking at the O’Reilly Where 2.0 Conference in San Jose May 20th, 2009 and has an amazing new book “Honest Signals: How They Shape Our World”.

So let’s assume mobile is going to be huge – bigger than it is now (3 Billion +) – what does that mean for the military. First, according to some analysts the demand for mobile content and applications will only get bigger. Audiences will seek out and consume content – not just text messages – but pictures, video, audio, and more. We need to ensure our communication strategies plan for friendly and adversarial distribution of content across mobile platforms. We also have to assume that civilians, from NGOs to farmers, will produce and distribute their own content from these mobile devices. Camera, video and even scanning and sensor devices will only get better on these phones.

Live Streaming – Citizen Journalism

Speaking about video on phones, we have to consider another emerging trend – live streaming. Made popular by Justin.tv and now an emerging trend creeping into the developing world, mobile devices allow anyone to stream video in real time from their mobile device to the world or to closed networks. Companies such as Ustream.tv and Qik allow anyone with a common phone to record the world around them and channel it to thousands or millions of others immediately. For a look at 14 companies with similar services check out “14 Ways to Broadcast Yourself…Live” from Venture Beat.

Mashups – Compelling Content For Influence

Another expected rising star for military operators are “mashups” – essentially data and services pulled from multiples sites and source on the Internet to create a new and better site. Al Jazeera created an influential crowdsourced mapping mashup in January 2009 focused on Gaza and this Mashup of the War on Gaza influenced perceptions by quickly pulling together and presenting data on Israeli activity. Similarly, Sokwanele created an engaging mashup of violence in Zimbabwe following the March 2008 elections and subsequent violence. Even more relavent, Bill Greer at Off The Map presents a Mashup of IED attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan pre- and post-Surge.

So why are mashups so important in a military context? Most notably, mashups are highly visual and depending upon their format and detail, have the ability to influence everyone from social elites to the average joe witnessing death blossoms blooming across a web page mashup of US intervention in some distant country. Normally dry data and disconnected media is tied together and often kept alive in a visually compelling format. In addition, mashups pose a threat ( as much as they do an opportunity) to perception. In the hands of the right adversary, a mashup’s data and presentation can be skewed or completely misrepresented to match the creator’s desires. At the same time there is a real opportunity here; mashups offer the military the opportunity to create living media that vividly and accurately portray US and Allied support to reconstruction, disaster and humanitarian assistance and even successful counterinsurgency and conventional campaigns. We need to start thinking about mashups both in offensive and defensive terms.

Ongoing Data Collection – By Whom?

In the examples above – and trust me, there are many more – it’s obvious that the Social Web is going to make the information environment incredibly complex and any attempt to understand “Human Dynamics” is bound to be frustrated with a top-down approach. We’re going to see millions of users with millions of mobile devices interacting in a many-to-many environment as they create, share and distribute content with or without our permission. So what’s a military commander to do?

First, we can’t solely pursue the DSB recommendation to conduct “ongoing data collection” – that’s a fool’s challenge. We could spend an infinite amount of time using finite resources to collect against a dynamic environment and get nowhere. If you want to win in this environment we need to rethink how we collect, analyze and distribute our content, and a centralized approach isn’t going to cut it. We need to enable the human network in these future environments to work for us. We need to think about how we can provide the infrastructure (such as devices and bandwidth), platforms (online social networks, cloud storage), tools (mashup editors, content tagging and rating) and content (accurate data,DVIDS, geo-tagged photos) that provide an ideal environments for US forces to operate in and win.

If we can successfully develop a strategic capability to deploy an “almost always on” infrastructure for the public, paired with free platforms and tools along with an operational commitment to expose our data and content to the public we will then build an information environment ideal for winning. We will have the Human Dynamic on our side, and that’s where I’d focus my efforts.

And if we could, perhaps the Defense Science Board could put together a Task Force on the Social Web and National Security?

Adm. Allen Leads the Social Web from the Front

Taking a shot out of the Apple advertising series, Adm Allen demonstrates the effect of the Social Web on US Coast Guard communications. In a well written and succinct article of Coast Guard Magazine (Issue 4, 2008 Community), PA2 Dan Bender outlines the reasoning behind the Coast Guard’s embrace of the Social Web. Every command should take a look at the US Coast Guard Social Web Primer – below is an excerpt:

“The Coast Guard already has official pages on MySpace, FaceBook, Flickr and YouTube. There’s also an extensive U.S. Coast Guard entry on Wikipedia that covers everything from history and missions to how we know Popeye was a Coastie. So when it comes to social media, the Coast Guard has already made the commitment to be there. This begs the question, why?

The answer is communication.

A third of the country reads blogs. More than a fourth of the country has a profile on
MySpace or FaceBook. With numbers like that it’s safe to say that social media is a good
way to reach out to the public.”

And communicate they do – Adm Allen has encouraged service members to blog, tweet, upload videos, share content and communicate their service to the nation across the Social Web.

Adm Allen has led the Coast Guard into the Social Web foray through personal example. In September of 2008 he published an informal yet effective video on Youtube laying out his “Social Media Initiative” – a bold move and perfect example of leadership from the front. He is adeptly commanding – encouraging and supporting all ranks to embrace the Social Web.

US Coast Guard staff have followed his lead, both at the tactical level with service members submitting original content from the front lines, as well as the operational level. The Coast Guard CIO recently published the US Coast Guard’s Strategic Plan for C4&IT (FY 20009 – 2013) which lays out a “Web 2.0 Strategy” that adeptly embraces the key concept of transparency, sharing and collaboration:

2.7.1 Web 2.0 Strategy
Develop a strategy that defines how the Coast Guard can use Web 2.0 technologies (e.g. social-networking sites, wikis, blogs, and podcasts) to improve the Coast Guard’s missions and operations; provide transparency to the public and interact with constituents; and enhance information sharing and collaboration within the Coast Guard and with partners (such as the Navy, Army, Air Force, and Border Patrol). (Primary POC: CG-63/OSC)

Major Milestones

• FY09 Q1: Determine elements and timeline of Web 2.0 to implement in CG Portal version 1 (See item 2.3.3 for CG Portal milestones.)
• FY09 Q2: Develop strategic plan to support the Commandant’s intent for Web 2.0 in coordination with Public Affairs

Key Performance Indicators
• Web 2.0 technologies identified and integrated with CG Portal

You can find Adm Allen online at the Commandant’s Corner (2.0) and read his regular posts at iCommandant The Web Journal of Admiral Thad Allen.You can even find him online via the Adm Thad Allen Facebook Page.

On Twitter, the Coast Guard has witnessed dozens of official and unofficial twitter accounts emerge. A full list is available at Who Uses Twitter in the Coast Guard, but the more notable users are USCG: an unofficial Twitter account for the United States Coast Guard;  CGBlog: The official twitter account for CGBlog.org; and U.S. Coast Guard: Official Twitter account for the United States Coast Guard. Adm Allen’s “tech celebrity status” has even spawned a FakeThadAllen account. With a mix of official and unofficial tweets out there, the Coast Guard reaches a large and diverse audience.

The US Coast Guard Facebook Page is well done with consistent updates and integration with their Youtube and Flickr streams. With 2,822 followers to date, they have attracted a small, but more importantly, passionate group of fans who promote their message. You can also find the US Coast Guard on Flickr at the US Coast Guard Flickr Page an for videos visit the US Coast Guard Youtube Channel which shows breaking videos of dramatic rescues, law enforcement action and more.

In Admiral Allen’s leadership by example we’ve witnessed an explosion of Coast Guard engagement across the Social Web. And this is a lesson for all military and national security organizations. Leaders at the top of the enterprise must embrace the Social Web through personal example. Setting an agenda and directing the organization to embrace the web is not enough. Adm Allen has stepped up to the front line with podcasts, a personal blog, a facebook account and more. He has reduced professional risk across the enterprise, demonstrating through personal example what he expects. If you view his Youtube message on Social Media you’ll find a message that is somewhat rough – the message is great – but the delivery and format is personal and uncut. And it’s perfect – Adm Allen’s example is encouraging all ranks to get out there and embrace the Social Web – acknowledging that their videos, content and message should be authentic. I expect we’ll see even greater social web innovation emerge from the US Coast Guard under his personal leadership.