China’s real fear during the Uighur unrest has not come from the BBC, NBC or the NY Times, but rather the likes of Facebook, Fanfou (china’s version of twitter), Youtube and other social networking sites. China has most certainly paid close attention to the “Twitter Revolutions” in Moldova and Iran, but it begs the question: why?

In his commentary at NPR.Org, Evgeny Morozov, who has been writing and blogging about this issue on his blog and that of Foreign Policy writes..

The problem with the current media narrative of a “cat and mouse” game is that much of this narrative has been built by the media itself. First, the media finds a story of the next Twitter revolution, blows it out of proportion by manipulating (or simply misunderstanding) the facts, and then this story is accepted as an explanation of what happened.

Couldn’t agree more with him on this point. Tehranians (not Iranians), the elite and Iranians in the West were certainly on Twitter and organizing, but 400,000 protesters in a country of more than 66 million people  (that’s less than 1% for those keeping score at home) does not constitute a revolution.

Thus, having read many accounts of the Twitter Revolution in Moldova, it’s no surprise that the Iranian authorities tried to ban Twitter; whether it played any role in igniting the protests is beyond the point – there is no way that Iranians would not try to block Twitter given that it has been lauded by almost every single media outlet out there as the next revolutionary tool. Ditto the Chinese: what self-respecting Communist party wouldn’t ban Twitter given that it’s often been singled out as one of the reasons why so many Iranians gathered in the streets of Tehran?

Now, we are obviously supporters of the social web here at Strategic Social, however, it should be said that neither Twitter nor its Chinese equivalent Fanfou are going to bring down authoritarian regimes overnight. This does not mean that the power of transparency and real time communication and collaboration will not become a TRUE force for mobilizing millions of disenchanted Iranians, Chinese, or even Burmese down the line. For the time being, however, it remains a tool of the elite . Everyone forgets that the Iranian Revolution did not happen overnight, but rather began building steam throughout 1977 and 1978 before the eventual toppling of the Shah in ’79.

The opening up of closed socities, think Glasnost in the Soviet Union, led to a non-revolution that forever changed geo-politics and the shape of the world as we know it today. In the 80′s, that process of openness and transparency took years to develop. In today’s real time news cycle transparency is accelerated. The prospects for non-revolution brought on by this rapid dissemination of information will only happen if the movement goes viral beyond the elite to generate legitimate grassroots support.

Protestors in Moldova

While we can debate the role of each service, the basic facts are true – the Social Web was and is being used to report, organize and influence protests against the Communists in Moldova.

Vitalie Eşanu provided some interesting lessons from the front lines, stating that they used McDonald’s free wifi as cellphones were being blocked. He also commented on the organization of the protests stating:

Initial organization, was spread over twitter and Facebook, and expected only few persons. Later we agree to create #pman to spread about this event over the world, and use Facebook for photos, and Youtube for videos

Twitter is still being used actively to report on events in Moldova and you can follow the twitter stream using the hashtag #pman. Watching this stream you can read the real-time reports of protesters as well as insights and advice being provided on how to respond.

Now, while many will argue the exact utility and role of services like Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, and Flickr in these protests, I am concerned with the more basic issue of access. In many cases the protesters were unable to communicate or organize via the social web or phones because services were turned off or blocked. This is not a new phenomenon – governments have shut down and restricted printing presses, radios, television, cellular and internet services in the past. Given today’s technology we should start thinking about how we can provide rapidly deployable internet and cellular service when the time comes for the US to support movements such as these. I’m not arguing that Moldova is a place we should intervene, but I am saying we should analyze this event and think to the near future.