Human Dynamics on the Frontline

The Defense Science Board recently released Understanding Human Dynamics, a report spawned by the need to understand the human dimension of war given the nature of the “war on terrorism” and American intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. While the entire report is a fascinating look at where the military is going in its approach to understanding the human dimension, we are most interested in a key paragraph of the report entitled “Information Engagement Requirements Will Significantly Expand” – the full text is below:

In an era where populations are linked by instant communications, information will also shape the operational environment. Information engagement can communicate critical knowledge, build trust, promote support for U.S. operations, and influence the perceptions and behaviors of many audiences. It places a high premium on understanding the local political, social, and economic situation within an area of operation. It also requires access to detailed information and trends regarding relevant audiences and their respective cultures, interests and objectives. A sophisticated understanding of traditional media (print, radio, and video broadcasting), social media (e.g. wiki, blogs), collaborative media, as well as influence networks will be necessary for audience understanding, tracking and influence. Ongoing data collection will be needed to identify emerging issues and opportunities that will serve as essential underpinnings of U.S. government strategic communication and public diplomacy efforts.

Looking at this paragraph, we see that key components of the Social Web (“social media”,”collaborative media” and online “influence networks”) will be essential to military strategy and operations now and into the future. Given that the this study recognizes the importance of the Social Web, what does that mean exactly?

First, we can rightly assume that the writers of this report threw in “social media” largely as a buzzword – the reference to “wikis and blogs” demonstrates a rudimentary understanding of social media and was either pulled from a large, dusty military primer on “web 2.0″ or a quick googling of the term. Wikis are unlikely to become a key “social media” input to the military human dynamic equation as I doubt we’ll find many critical wikis emerge in the hot spots of disaster relief, peacekeeping operations or all-out-war. As for blogs, we agree on their importance; we’ve seen them emerge on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan and we can rightly predict a massive uptake not only in blogging, but micro-blogging from future areas of conflict as well.

But in addition to the DSB’s “wikis and blogs”, the military should also be prepared for other forms of content and communication to play a key role in future missions and conflicts. Some of these are discussed below, but this is by no means a comprehensive list.

Mobile is King!

Hi-tech cellphones emerge on the battlefield

Mobile devices will surely be at the forefront of any future environment and the military needs to focus on mobile technology, content and usage immediately. EPROM (Entrepreneurial Programming and Research on Mobiles) out of MIT is a great resource both for data and ideas. With billions of mobile phones used worldwide and with over 60% of these consumers living in developing countries, it’s a safe bet to assume that the mobile phone is our “go to” device for social media engagement and understanding in most conflict countries. For a deeper look into human behavior and mobile devices you should check out the work at “Reality Mining” and find time to chat with Sandy Pentland of MIT. He’s speaking at the O’Reilly Where 2.0 Conference in San Jose May 20th, 2009 and has an amazing new book “Honest Signals: How They Shape Our World”.

So let’s assume mobile is going to be huge – bigger than it is now (3 Billion +) – what does that mean for the military. First, according to some analysts the demand for mobile content and applications will only get bigger. Audiences will seek out and consume content – not just text messages – but pictures, video, audio, and more. We need to ensure our communication strategies plan for friendly and adversarial distribution of content across mobile platforms. We also have to assume that civilians, from NGOs to farmers, will produce and distribute their own content from these mobile devices. Camera, video and even scanning and sensor devices will only get better on these phones.

Live Streaming – Citizen Journalism

Speaking about video on phones, we have to consider another emerging trend – live streaming. Made popular by Justin.tv and now an emerging trend creeping into the developing world, mobile devices allow anyone to stream video in real time from their mobile device to the world or to closed networks. Companies such as Ustream.tv and Qik allow anyone with a common phone to record the world around them and channel it to thousands or millions of others immediately. For a look at 14 companies with similar services check out “14 Ways to Broadcast Yourself…Live” from Venture Beat.

Mashups – Compelling Content For Influence

Another expected rising star for military operators are “mashups” – essentially data and services pulled from multiples sites and source on the Internet to create a new and better site. Al Jazeera created an influential crowdsourced mapping mashup in January 2009 focused on Gaza and this Mashup of the War on Gaza influenced perceptions by quickly pulling together and presenting data on Israeli activity. Similarly, Sokwanele created an engaging mashup of violence in Zimbabwe following the March 2008 elections and subsequent violence. Even more relavent, Bill Greer at Off The Map presents a Mashup of IED attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan pre- and post-Surge.

So why are mashups so important in a military context? Most notably, mashups are highly visual and depending upon their format and detail, have the ability to influence everyone from social elites to the average joe witnessing death blossoms blooming across a web page mashup of US intervention in some distant country. Normally dry data and disconnected media is tied together and often kept alive in a visually compelling format. In addition, mashups pose a threat ( as much as they do an opportunity) to perception. In the hands of the right adversary, a mashup’s data and presentation can be skewed or completely misrepresented to match the creator’s desires. At the same time there is a real opportunity here; mashups offer the military the opportunity to create living media that vividly and accurately portray US and Allied support to reconstruction, disaster and humanitarian assistance and even successful counterinsurgency and conventional campaigns. We need to start thinking about mashups both in offensive and defensive terms.

Ongoing Data Collection – By Whom?

In the examples above – and trust me, there are many more – it’s obvious that the Social Web is going to make the information environment incredibly complex and any attempt to understand “Human Dynamics” is bound to be frustrated with a top-down approach. We’re going to see millions of users with millions of mobile devices interacting in a many-to-many environment as they create, share and distribute content with or without our permission. So what’s a military commander to do?

First, we can’t solely pursue the DSB recommendation to conduct “ongoing data collection” – that’s a fool’s challenge. We could spend an infinite amount of time using finite resources to collect against a dynamic environment and get nowhere. If you want to win in this environment we need to rethink how we collect, analyze and distribute our content, and a centralized approach isn’t going to cut it. We need to enable the human network in these future environments to work for us. We need to think about how we can provide the infrastructure (such as devices and bandwidth), platforms (online social networks, cloud storage), tools (mashup editors, content tagging and rating) and content (accurate data,DVIDS, geo-tagged photos) that provide an ideal environments for US forces to operate in and win.

If we can successfully develop a strategic capability to deploy an “almost always on” infrastructure for the public, paired with free platforms and tools along with an operational commitment to expose our data and content to the public we will then build an information environment ideal for winning. We will have the Human Dynamic on our side, and that’s where I’d focus my efforts.

And if we could, perhaps the Defense Science Board could put together a Task Force on the Social Web and National Security?